原标题：考研英语【题源外刊】第104期：“概率”和“可信度”均有其坏处

now, 正式进入到第 104期 外刊精读la

原文期刊：金融时报

原文标题：

when storytelling leads to unhappy endings

考研英语阅览论题—商场

定量金融学(quantitative finance )是一门新式的学科，他融金融、数学的常识于一体，即用数学的办法分析金融领域的常识。此学科要肄业生具有厚实的数学功底和优良的英语水平。

原教旨主义fundamentalism 或根柢教义派，也称“原理主义”、“基要主义”或“基要派”，是指某些宗教集体企图回归其原初的崇奉的运动，或指严肃恪守根来历理的情绪。

他们认为这些宗教内部在近代呈现的安适主义神学使其崇奉世俗化、违背了其崇奉的本质，因而作出回答；一般建议对其宗教的根柢经文或文献做字面的、传统的说明，而且信赖从这些阐释中获得的教义大约被运用于社会、经济和政治日子的各个方面。

皮皮小科普

文章经过分析指出，“概率”和“可信度”均有其坏处，真实智者应能一起运用二者。这篇文章首要亮点有：论题新颖风趣，规划紧凑清楚，证明方法多样，依照“指呈表象（第一、二段）——阐明表象成因（第三、四段）——标明作者观念（第五至七段）”的条理打开论说。

part one: 原文&单词

ⅰlinda is single, outspoken and deeply engaged with social issues. which of the following is more likely? that linda is a bank manager or that linda is a bank manager who is an active feminist? this is one of the best-known problems in behavioural economics. many people say that the second option is more likely. yet, the standard response goes, this cannot be. the rules of probability tell us the probability that both a and b are true cannot exceed the probability that either a or b is true. yet even people trained in probability make a mistake with the linda problem.

第①段单词：

1.feminist [?fem?n?st] n. 女权主义者

ⅱor is it a mistake? little self-examination is required to understand what is going on. respondents do not interpret the question as one about probability. they think it is a question about believability. the deion of linda that ends with the statement “linda is a bank manager” is designed to be inconsistent. the addition — “who is an active feminist” begins to restore coherence. the story becomes more believable, even if less probable.

ⅲ we do not often, or easily, think in terms of probabilities, because there are not many situations in which this style of thinking is useful. probability theory is a marvellous tool for games of chance — such as spinning a roulette wheel. the structure of the problem is comprehensively defined by the rules of the game. the set of outcomes is well defined and bounded, and we will soon know which outcome has occurred. but most of the problems we face in the business and financial worlds — or in our personal lives — are not like that. the rules are ill-defined, the range of outcomes is wider than we can easily imagine and often we do not fully comprehend what has happened even after the event.

第③段单词：

2.bounded [‘ba?nd?d] a. 有鸿沟的，有捆绑的

3.ill-defined [?l d?’fa?nd] a. 不清楚的，不清楚的

*roulette wheel 轮盘赌

ⅳwe deal with that world by constructing simplifying narratives. we do this not because we are stupid, or irrational, but because storytelling is the best means of making sense of complexity. the test of these narratives is whether they are believable. jurors convict a defendant because they find the prosecution’s account of events believable.

第④段单词：

4.simplify [?s?mpl?fa?] v. 简化，使易懂，使简练

5.narrative [?n?r?t?v] n. 叙说，记叙

6.irrational [??r???nl] a. 不沉着的，非理性的

7.convict [k?n?v?kt] v. 宣判有罪，科罪

8.prosecution [?pr?s??kju:?n] n. 控方

9.account [??ka?nt] n. 陈述

ⅴthe rise of quantitative finance has led people to squeeze many things into the framework of probability. the invention of subjective or personal probabilities proved to be a means of applying a well-established branch of mathematics to a new range of problems. this approach had the appearance of science, and enabled young turks to marginalise the war stories of innumerate old fogies. the old fogies may have known something after all, however.

第⑤段单词：

15. dawn /d??n/ v. 拂晓；呈现

16. yoghurt /’j?ɡ?t/ n. 酸奶

17. dairy /’de?r?/ n. 奶制品

18. confectionery /k?n’fek??n?r?/ n. 糕点糖块

19. rocket /’r?k?t/ v. 飞速添加

*young turk 少壮派，青年急进分子

*old fogy 保守的人，老顽固

ⅵstill, reliance on narration is problematic. we are predisposed to find evidence that confirms our existing beliefs. that leads some people to become obsessed by narratives that offer theories of everything: libertarianism, religious and environmental fundamentalism.

第⑥段单词：

14.predisposed [pri:d?s’p??zd] a. 倾向于……的

15.libertarianism [?l?b?’te?r??n?z?m] n. 安适意志论

16.fundamentalism [?f?nd??ment?l?z?m] n. 原教旨主义

ⅶthe mark of a first-rate intelligence, said the writer f. scott fitzgerald, is the ability to hold conflicting ideas in the mind at the same time and still function.

第⑦段单词：

30. be blamed for因……被责怪

31. indebted /?n’det?d/ a. 负债的

32. policymaker /’p?l?s?,me?k?/ n. 方针拟定者；抉择计划人

33. ruthlessly /ru:θlisli/ ad. 无情地

（注:标*号为超纲词）

part two: 长难句语法指点

we do not often, or easily, think in terms of probabilities,because there a

re not many situationsin which this style of thinking is useful.

标红有些为主句，in terms of 介词短语作方法状语，蓝色有些为缘由状语从句，橙色有些为which引导的定语从句，介词提前。

part three: 写作句型学习

respondents do not interpret the question as one about …….they think it is a question about …….

作答者没有把该疑问当作一个……疑问去了解，他们认为这是一个……疑问。

原文例句：

respondents do not interpret the question as one about probability.they think it is a question about believability. 作答者没有把该疑问当作一个概率疑问去了解，他们认为这是一个“可信度”的疑问。

xx proved to be a means of applying aa to bb. xx实践上是将aa使用于bb的一种办法。

原文例句：

the invention of subjective or personal probabilities proved to be a means of applying a well-established branch of mathematics to a new range of problems. 片面概率或自个概率的创造，实践上是将一个前史长远的数学分指使用于一系列新疑问的一种办法。

still, …… is problematic.

可是，……也有疑问。

原文例句：

still, reliance on narration is problematic.可是，依靠于“叙说”也有疑问。

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